THESHADOWBOX.NET

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

Amanda is making Art with your support on Patreon. Join become a patron and help AFP make ALL THE THINGS.

Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Peak Oil  (Read 3873 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Kovacs

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 884
Peak Oil
« on: May 09, 2008, 04:16:59 PM »

This is one of the more informative topics on oil that I have found. It's of course subject to wide interpretation, but a lot of it is sound science.

If you ever wanted to be informed of how oil impacts your life: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

For me, the scariest part is the predictive peaks. Using a model on various countries, they can predict when each reached its oil peak of production. Example:

U.S.: 1970
Iran: 1974
Mexico: 2003

etc.etc.

Then, using the same model, extrapolate using current data to the world's largest main oil producers:

Kuwait: 2013
Saudi Arabia: 2014
Iraq: 2018

That's not when the oil runs out, but when the production peaks and then starts to drop off. But apparently the effects will be felt fairly quickly. Transportation and mainly agriculture are the scary ones.

I remember reading about this way back when the war in iraq started. The author of this particular article actually praised Bush, because by securing one of the larger oil resources he was actually delaying the effects of a possible peak in the US (i.e. if it starts to decline, we'll get the remaining oil first because we're collosal dicks).

I truly feel that this will be the defining issue of our generation. It could lead to war like other global issues have in the past. Couple it with a potential incoming drought and we're in it deep.

I suppose my questions are this: how seriously do you take this data? Enough to prepare for it? What do you think the worldwide effects would be?

(Freely admitted that posting this was prompted by Ms. Palmers blog by the way. I hadn't looked up peak oil in a long time [denial], and was again scared shitless by the theory)
Logged

caddy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3463
  • The Anti-Semantic
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2008, 07:24:31 PM »

actually, a professor of mine says that have not, in fact, reached peak oil yet in the world, but we are getting very close to doing so.
Logged

Kovacs

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 884
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2008, 07:50:18 PM »

Right, thats what these numbers suggest. Around 2018 all the resources will have peaked.
Logged

85283-071

  • tangentrification on a stick
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3461
  • M?ust We? Thro?b
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2008, 09:14:39 PM »

In terms of fuel and energy production, I think we will transition quickly when (and probably before) the time comes.

The mining project of the future: mining landfills for unrecycled plastics. Miniaturization will help decrease our need for some plastics, but that advantage is offset by disposable gadgets and population using them. We will need new, lightweight materials.
Logged
...a little concerned about your sensibilities.

Kovacs

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 884
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2008, 09:45:36 PM »

I'd hope the transition would be quick, but all estimates in that article say 20 years slowly, 10 years at a breakneck pace. I'm not sure how much stock to place in the estimates, but given how long it takes to develop new techniques...
Logged

85283-071

  • tangentrification on a stick
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3461
  • M?ust We? Thro?b
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2008, 10:44:22 PM »

At one point, quite a few years ago, Ford gave a very optimistic projection regarding how quickly it could have fuel cells in thier operating vehicles if... IF they were subsidized for the transition. I don't know who to believe, but we are shifting now. Fuel technologies and the progress toward their execution are in the news regularly. It's not being ignored. Everything is slower than it should be, but I think we'll be ready when (and if) our oil supply dwindles.
Logged
...a little concerned about your sensibilities.

caddy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3463
  • The Anti-Semantic
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2008, 12:15:30 AM »

ah, my teacher spoke of said fuel cells, and how they would be run off hydrogen. the only problem with that is that, well....hydrogen cannot be used for energy in that way. maybe not even conceptually. so that it was too quick of an announcement to make in terms of replacing what's on the market with it.

not only that, but the transition to ethanol would damage the food economy, as farmers would use more farming land obsessively for fuel, which would probably give them a higher paycheck, instead of selling their crops as food. issue number one.
Logged

CeeGBee

  • Too o-o-old to rock & ro-o-oll, but too young to die...
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18563
    • Facebook, website, what's the dif?
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2008, 12:17:28 AM »

Given the apparent ease with which a car can be converted to run on the old french-fry oil
from the local burger stand, and the general tendency of people to find solutions just as soon
as whatever-it-is becomes "my problem", I don't worry too much about the oil runnig out...


Now, ask about supplies of wild ocean-grown seafood... that worries me.
Logged
Is it bad that what she said made perfect sense to me?

85283-071

  • tangentrification on a stick
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3461
  • M?ust We? Thro?b
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2008, 12:59:03 AM »

Logged
...a little concerned about your sensibilities.

CeeGBee

  • Too o-o-old to rock & ro-o-oll, but too young to die...
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18563
    • Facebook, website, what's the dif?
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2008, 01:13:52 PM »

Ethanol!!
You suppose them fellers started out in West Virginia?  in a holler up in tha hills?

You can put a fancy box on it, but a still's still a still...
Logged
Is it bad that what she said made perfect sense to me?

85283-071

  • tangentrification on a stick
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3461
  • M?ust We? Thro?b
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2008, 06:34:11 PM »

Do Floyd Butterfield and Thomas Quinn sound like hillbilly names?


Floyd was a farmer, and he won a contest sponsored by the Department of Agriculture in 1980. That's how it started.
Logged
...a little concerned about your sensibilities.

CeeGBee

  • Too o-o-old to rock & ro-o-oll, but too young to die...
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18563
    • Facebook, website, what's the dif?
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2008, 08:38:20 PM »

Do Floyd Butterfield and Thomas Quinn sound like hillbilly names?


Floyd was a farmer, and he won a contest sponsored by the Department of Agriculture in 1980. That's how it started.
That first one is a pretty textbook Hillbilly name.
Floyd County, Virginia...


From (no kidding) epodunk.com...
Logged
Is it bad that what she said made perfect sense to me?

Kovacs

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 884
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2008, 09:08:23 PM »

Given the apparent ease with which a car can be converted to run on the old french-fry oil
from the local burger stand, and the general tendency of people to find solutions just as soon
as whatever-it-is becomes "my problem", I don't worry too much about the oil runnig out...


Now, ask about supplies of wild ocean-grown seafood... that worries me.

Apparent ease? You mean the mechanical transtition, not the technology development, right? Because development like that takes a fairly long time, unless the precursers are already in place.

The issue really doesn't have to do with transportation only, it has to do with food. Things pertroleum is used to make:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_product

The key there is plastics. If plastic production slowed down, along with transportation, getting food from one place to another would become difficult.

Also, one thing they don't list is pesticides, which is the backbone of our current food production. Without petrol that drops as well.

When people say we're "addicted to oil", the first thing most folks think of is gasoline. But looking around me now, at least 80% of the stuff on my desk is made from petroleum. The food I just ate was grown using it, packaged in it, and driven here using it. The thought of it disappearing, and having to produce alternate production techniques for everything is a daunting one.
Logged

Musings

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 3011
Re: Peak Oil
« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2008, 09:31:05 AM »

I admit, I didn't know much about this.

I knew that oil would reach a peak production and then drop off, but I had no numbers in my head... maybe something like 2050.

You should check out www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net  .  I like their subtitle
Quote
Deal with reality or reality will deal with you
.

It's hella scary.  Food is just the beginning, although according to this:  it takes 10 calories of oil to produce 1 calorie of food.  Modern medicine, computer, microchips, food, internet, even the production of solar panels and wind turbines -- all involve petroleum.

Read the sections on the Bush administration and how Western countries are preparing as well.  It's very interesting.


One of the links below uses the phrase: "Energy-facism".

My faith in human innovation and intelligence doesn't allow me to believe in such widespread human catastrophic situations.  BUT, something needs to change, and change now. 
Logged
www.upstreamofconsciousness.blogspot.com

"Just dance, gonna be OK, just dance." - Lady Gaga, inspired by Rainer Maria Rilke
Pages: [1]   Go Up