THESHADOWBOX.NET

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

Want some free music? Most of AFP's discography (as well as The Dolls, side-projects, and more) is available for free+donation on Bandcamp

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 ... 11  All   Go Down

Author Topic: Will you vote for Obama again?  (Read 18572 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

CeeGBee

  • Too o-o-old to rock & ro-o-oll, but too young to die...
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18563
    • Facebook, website, what's the dif?
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2012, 02:16:33 AM »

...Suppose a statistically-significant proportion of those voters
share the same slight leaning to one side or the other?

This step in your argument is not logically valid.  You only control you.  The jump from "Zach won't vote" to "what if a statistically-significant portion..." is exactly the same as the jump from "I have a one in 175,223,510 chance to win the lottery" to "what if you had a 50% chance!"

You control one vote.  ONE.  Any argument you make based on the possibility that it is more than one is fallacious.


Like I said...  IF you have any preference....[blah blah blah]

Suppose, for whatever barely-preceived reason, 75% of you barely-prefer the same
guy?  That's got to count for something. If, on the other hand, you're split 50/50 in
your disinterest, then no harm's been done.


Or, to look at it another way, the loonies WILL vote, it's what they do.  The normal folks in the
center.... well, every election cycle, fewer of them vote, which is why we have the deadlock
we have - Congressman Jones bucks party-line to support a rational compromise, and he loses
the support of his extreme wing, while the center (that's you) says "meh"...



As for the lotto comparison.  California has the most registered voters in the nation, around
14.5 million.  Most elections, around 60-65% actually vote, so one voter is roughly 1:9 million.
The odds of winning the jackpot in PowerBall are 1:175,223,510.
In an average congressional district, the number of likely voters drops to under 200,000.
Dunno about your city, but in a lot of places, council seats are decided by hundreds of votes.

...but, ya know, if you've got something else you've got to be doing all day on that Tuesday,
that's your call.
Logged
Is it bad that what she said made perfect sense to me?

RiverVox

  • I'm a believer.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 503
  • Goodbye to blueberry pie
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2012, 09:57:01 AM »

Our fearless leader recommended on twitter that we register to vote:




https://register.rockthevote.com/registrants/new?partner=1681&source=rtvpalmer

Logged
Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten. ~ Neil Gaiman

JRidley

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 4
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2012, 11:23:24 PM »

I did before and I will again.

I still believe he can affect great change if he only has the support of Congress, which means we need a majority in the House and Senate as well.

Romney is terrifying.
Logged

faninor

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #33 on: September 29, 2012, 04:56:47 AM »

...Suppose a statistically-significant proportion of those voters
share the same slight leaning to one side or the other?

This step in your argument is not logically valid.  You only control you.  The jump from "Zach won't vote" to "what if a statistically-significant portion..." is exactly the same as the jump from "I have a one in 175,223,510 chance to win the lottery" to "what if you had a 50% chance!"

You control one vote.  ONE.  Any argument you make based on the possibility that it is more than one is fallacious.
I believe it is conceivable that people leaning towards one candidate may be less likely to cast a vote than people leaning towards another candidate. Perhaps there were faulty polls suggesting the race isn't as close as it actually is; perhaps one party's primary was a landslide and their candidate has widespread support but another party's primary was split between 2 candidates and many potential voters who have to settle for their 2nd choice become disinterested; perhaps special interest in a ballot measure draws more voters who would lean towards one candidate than another, and therefore more votes for that candidate.

Because of that, I think that anyone who has a preference between the possible outcomes of an election ought to vote. I only control one vote, and it's not likely that one vote will change the outcome, but it's the only way we can truly guarantee the result reflects the true majority opinion of the people. If you're completing a poll for an academic study you can take some measures to make sure that you get a good representative sample, eliminate bias, and get a low margin of error between your sample and the overall population. In the real world of elections you just have to take whatever voters you get, so the best thing to do to get an accurate reflection of the overall population is get as many people as possible. You can't turn someone away just because a disproportionate number of Latinos or a disproportionate number of women happen to show up.
Logged

Miranda.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 1303
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #34 on: September 29, 2012, 09:03:41 AM »

I wont be voting. I live in Texas; no matter who I vote for the state will be republican. I don't think my one votes makes a difference and honestly I don't think I am I am qualified to choose our government.
Logged
I could live for nothing but kissing.

5 points to the house of your choosing for awesome crochet skills.

imaginary friend

  • Enigmagnetic
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14904
  • up in flames
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #35 on: September 29, 2012, 09:51:44 AM »

I wont be voting. I live in Texas; no matter who I vote for the state will be republican. I don't think my one votes makes a difference and honestly I don't think I am I am qualified to choose our government.

...but your neighbors are?

at least cancel one of them out!

Savannah

  • Ich Bin Ein
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 2646
  • Accidentally on purpose
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #36 on: September 29, 2012, 12:34:22 PM »

I wont be voting. I live in Texas; no matter who I vote for the state will be republican. I don't think my one votes makes a difference and honestly I don't think I am I am qualified to choose our government.

...but your neighbors are?

at least cancel one of them out!

you pretty much summed up what people call "democracy". it's usually nothing but picking the lesser of two evils, and it mostly turns out to be the dictatorship of the majority over the minorities.
Logged
Quote from: Amanda Palmer
I mean, we're losers with bandwidth. #LOFNOTC

facebook is like the worst book I've ever read. the characters do not evolve one bit and the plot is going nowhere.

Tiervexx

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2388
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #37 on: September 29, 2012, 06:09:41 PM »

...Suppose a statistically-significant proportion of those voters
share the same slight leaning to one side or the other?

This step in your argument is not logically valid.  You only control you.  The jump from "Zach won't vote" to "what if a statistically-significant portion..." is exactly the same as the jump from "I have a one in 175,223,510 chance to win the lottery" to "what if you had a 50% chance!"

You control one vote.  ONE.  Any argument you make based on the possibility that it is more than one is fallacious.


Like I said...  IF you have any preference....[blah blah blah]

Suppose, for whatever barely-preceived reason, 75% of you barely-prefer the same
guy?  That's got to count for something. If, on the other hand, you're split 50/50 in
your disinterest, then no harm's been done.


Or, to look at it another way, the loonies WILL vote, it's what they do.  The normal folks in the
center.... well, every election cycle, fewer of them vote, which is why we have the deadlock
we have - Congressman Jones bucks party-line to support a rational compromise, and he loses
the support of his extreme wing, while the center (that's you) says "meh"...



As for the lotto comparison.  California has the most registered voters in the nation, around
14.5 million.  Most elections, around 60-65% actually vote, so one voter is roughly 1:9 million.
The odds of winning the jackpot in PowerBall are 1:175,223,510.
In an average congressional district, the number of likely voters drops to under 200,000.
Dunno about your city, but in a lot of places, council seats are decided by hundreds of votes.

...but, ya know, if you've got something else you've got to be doing all day on that Tuesday,
that's your call.

If you are one in 9 million voters in your area/district whatever that is not the same thing as having a 1 in 9 million chance of casting a deciding vote.  It's much worse than that.  The real calculation involves a statistical distribution and the odds of reaching exactly 50/50 falls exponentially.  More people makes it exponentially less likely to happen and if there is a bias in the electorate, like in Texas, it becomes hopeless fast.  In particular, if ~Miranda~ casts a vote for Obama in Texas the odds of the state going to Obama because of her vote (not even talking about the national election) is probably only slightly higher than the chance of a random quantum event spawning a Mind Flayer out of your computer to eat your brain.

But as I said, I don't like either major party.  I can't get enthusiastic about voting for one of them even if I had a 100% chance of choosing the winner.  To make things worse, if I vote against the incumbent congressman in my district I'd have to vote for the dreaded Todd Akin.
Logged

Miss Sahara

  • .............
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1008
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #38 on: October 04, 2012, 05:37:44 PM »

i don't know the first thing about politics and/or the US, but this guy's prediction method is kinda amusing

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012
Logged

N.U.

  • Initials... OF DOOM!
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2258
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #39 on: October 04, 2012, 05:48:09 PM »

I wont be voting. I live in Texas; no matter who I vote for the state will be republican. I don't think my one votes makes a difference and honestly I don't think I am I am qualified to choose our government.

That gives you even more freedom to vote for the party that most closely holds your views, whether that be a third party or one of the two major parties.
Logged

N.U.

  • Initials... OF DOOM!
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2258
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #40 on: October 04, 2012, 05:57:34 PM »

i don't know the first thing about politics and/or the US, but this guy's prediction method is kinda amusing

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

A. This was written in 2011.
B. Fast & Furious - there's your scandal
C. 9/11 attacks in Libya, costing the life of an Ambassador - there's your foreign failure
D. Occupy Wall Street - there's your civil unrest
E. This makes Obama's margin of victory 0.
Logged

Rose

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 810
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #41 on: October 05, 2012, 12:05:48 AM »

Suppose, for whatever barely-preceived reason, 75% of you barely-prefer the same
guy?  That's got to count for something.  If, on the other hand, you're split 50/50 in
your disinterest, then no harm's been done.


I'm assuming you mean 75% of my psyche and not 75% of the electorate?

No, I meant 75% of the electorate, or rather that portion of the electorate that doesn't feel
like it has a strong preference. Suppose a statistically-significant proportion of those voters
share the same slight leaning to one side or the other?

If all those people vote the same way, the will of a lot of people has been expressed, and if
they're split down the middle, they haven't subverted the will of the folks who feel perhaps
more strongly one way or another.

And, to repeat myself, FIRE YOUR CONGRESSMAN.
Why should I oust my congressman? I'm very curious, honestly. I remember the whole fiasco with them locking each other out of choosing a budget - that was congress, yeah? Or was it the senate? Would ousting him/her/it be some sort of protest of that behavior, in your opinion? I can't remember who I've got right now - I'm planning on doing a lot of studying before the election this year.

I dunno if you will even see this since I'm quoting from a week ago.
Logged

CeeGBee

  • Too o-o-old to rock & ro-o-oll, but too young to die...
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18563
    • Facebook, website, what's the dif?
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #42 on: October 05, 2012, 01:56:31 AM »

I SEE ALL......    O0

Fire your Congressman because they as a collective have developed a sense of invulnerable
unaccountability.  They 'know' that they're 80% or more likely to get reelected, higher, really,
unless they had a serious specific 'problem', like a criminal indictment or very public personal
scandal (neither of which is a guaranteed loss), so they're more afraid of their own parties'
extreme wings ousting them for considering a compromise position, than they are of their
constituents as a group ousting them for hyper-partisan obstructionism.  Right now it's the
Republicans (led by my own embarrassment, Eric Cantor) who aren't even shy about voting
an agenda whose top priority is embarrassing the President, with actual effective governance
a distant second... maybe third. Doubtless the Dems would do something similar if the situation
were reversed.
Jobs bill? Can't even get to the House floor.  "Obamacare" repeal? Passed 30+ times, purely for show.
Logged
Is it bad that what she said made perfect sense to me?

N.U.

  • Initials... OF DOOM!
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2258
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #43 on: October 05, 2012, 10:25:33 AM »

Debt Ceiling? They waited to the 11th hour and only after a number of benchmarks were established for budgetary cuts.
Logged

Rose

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 810
Re: Will you vote for Obama again?
« Reply #44 on: October 05, 2012, 06:36:56 PM »

Huh. Now I will have to be thinking about that, as well as all the other reading up and such I need to do before election day. I think it's only effective to fire my congressman if a lot of districts do it. But I can't really start spreading the word for that, it's rather late in the game and I already have a pet project I'm trying to make people aware of...
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 ... 11  All   Go Up