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Author Topic: Palin is.....  (Read 34286 times)

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J_Beck

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2009, 11:31:36 PM »


In case you missed it, the last election for one of Minnesota's US Senate seats was eventually decided by
about 400 votes.  Dubya's 2000 election swung on some very dubious vote-counting methodologies in a
few counties in Florida, and lest we forget, it is widely believed that John Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon
by the margin of a few thousand fraudulent votes in Illinois and Texas.


Anyway, the trick is simply to have more votes at the end of the election (Electoral Votes for the Presidency).
There's no need to try to make a "popular mandate", just a win.

I addressed this basic idea with:

"this is true but it has to be awfully close to work.

The Republican party is so damaged right now it just won't be that close... Newt MIGHT be able to get somewhere but I'm sure Palin would be crushed."

Didn't 2004 start the "permanent Republican majority"?

No, I never heard anyone say that till just now.  Maybe a few people thought that but no where near as broad of a consensus as what we have now that the republicans will need a long time to recover.

Karl Rove and many in the GOP talked about it after their "big" win in 2004 (well big atleast compared to 2000).

All the GOP needs is 1 good candidate to be a threat for Obama, and with alot of the early front runners being knocked out this far in advanced there is a chance for some unknowns to come out of the woodwork.

Where was Bill Clinton in 89?

Even with Obama he was not on the short list, people thought he would possibly run in early 2005 but even the nomination would have been thought to be a very long shot.
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Tiervexx

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #16 on: July 04, 2009, 12:15:56 AM »

Karl Rove and many in the GOP talked about it after their "big" win in 2004 (well big atleast compared to 2000).

Party loyalists like Rove always exaggerate their accomplishments.  Now we even have republicans who think that party is screwed.

All the GOP needs is 1 good candidate to be a threat for Obama, and with alot of the early front runners being knocked out this far in advanced there is a chance for some unknowns to come out of the woodwork.

The GOP needs one REALLY good candidate with the way things are right now.  Now it would help them if the economy took a sudden dive before election time but that is not likely as a huge recession has probably just bottomed out.

It is very likely that the economy will be looking much better before election time no matter how much credit Obama's programs actually deserve (the recession had to bottom out eventually...) he will easily take credit for it.  With a fixed economy under his belt nobody the republicans could ever hope to find will have a chance against Obama.

Business cycle theory is never certain but I do have a degree in economics and I did enough independent study in this field to have a good idea about this current recession before it hit so I feel reasonably confident in my estimate that the economy will look better before the next election.

Where was Bill Clinton in 89?

Even with Obama he was not on the short list, people thought he would possibly run in early 2005 but even the nomination would have been thought to be a very long shot.

Clinton and Obama had a much more favorable political climates than the next GOP candidate is likely to have.  They also had much greater "likability" than any potential GOP candidates that I'm aware of.

After thinking it over I think Newt Gingrich has an excellent shot at the nomination.  He is a very eloquent speaker and will probably give Obama a rougher time in the debates than McCain did but if I'm right about the economy picking up it will all be for naught.
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Andy Pants

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reality doesn't give a damn about our plans.

Quote from: Henry Rollins
Cynicism in nothing but intellectual cowardice. It's basically you not taking the time to deal with what is

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hateandjealousy

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2009, 11:48:20 AM »

Palin is plotting an attack on America and abortion clinics, that's why she left.
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CeeGBee

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2009, 05:37:06 PM »

BUT SERIOUSLY.......

She's planning to run for President in 2012 (duh...) and  someone finally beat into her head that she
could be the most incredible governor Alaska has ever had, or ever will have, and it still wouldn't give
her  any political  leverage in the other 49 states.  That is, she  NEEDS to get down to the lower 48,
and  there just aren't  enough excuses for the governor  of AK to do  all that out-of-state travelling
without handing every future opponent a big absentee-officeholder stick to beat her with.

Watch for her to become a regular feature at far-Right-interest-group functions betweeen now and 2011,
when we'll find out if she's acquired enough in-party clout to bully her way onto the GOP ballot for '12.
(Sadly for her, her influence outside the Republican Party will still be nonexistent, so her presence on any
such ticket will once again prove a liability.)
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Is it bad that what she said made perfect sense to me?

Andy Pants

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2009, 07:59:56 PM »

BUT SERIOUSLY.......

She's planning to run for President in 2012 (duh...) and  someone finally beat into her head that she
could be the most incredible governor Alaska has ever had, or ever will have, and it still wouldn't give
her  any political  leverage in the other 49 states.  That is, she  NEEDS to get down to the lower 48,
and  there just aren't  enough excuses for the governor  of AK to do  all that out-of-state travelling
without handing every future opponent a big absentee-officeholder stick to beat her with.

Watch for her to become a regular feature at far-Right-interest-group functions betweeen now and 2011,
when we'll find out if she's acquired enough in-party clout to bully her way onto the GOP ballot for '12.
(Sadly for her, her influence outside the Republican Party will still be nonexistent, so her presence on any
such ticket will once again prove a liability.)

If she does become the Republican candidate in 2012 then the future looks pretty bright for the Obama administration. Isn't it possible that she's become such an embarassment to her party that she's simply been encouraged to move out of a position in which she might be under the media spotlight?
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reality doesn't give a damn about our plans.

Quote from: Henry Rollins
Cynicism in nothing but intellectual cowardice. It's basically you not taking the time to deal with what is

CeeGBee

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2009, 11:17:19 PM »

BUT SERIOUSLY.......

She's planning to run for President in 2012 (duh...) and  someone finally beat into her head that she
could be the most incredible governor Alaska has ever had, or ever will have, and it still wouldn't give
her  any political  leverage in the other 49 states.  That is, she  NEEDS to get down to the lower 48,
and  there just aren't  enough excuses for the governor  of AK to do  all that out-of-state travelling
without handing every future opponent a big absentee-officeholder stick to beat her with.

Watch for her to become a regular feature at far-Right-interest-group functions betweeen now and 2011,
when we'll find out if she's acquired enough in-party clout to bully her way onto the GOP ballot for '12.
(Sadly for her, her influence outside the Republican Party will still be nonexistent, so her presence on any
such ticket will once again prove a liability.)

If she does become the Republican candidate in 2012 then the future looks pretty bright for the Obama administration. Isn't it possible that she's become such an embarassment to her party that she's simply been encouraged to move out of a position in which she might be under the media spotlight?
Watch and see.....

The thing is, much as the GOP's pragmatic we'd-like-to-get-back-into-office-someday people
would like [her, Cheney, the Governor of SC, Rush Limbaugh...] to go away and never be heard
from again, those people just won't play along.
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J_Beck

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2009, 02:09:40 PM »

BUT SERIOUSLY.......

She's planning to run for President in 2012 (duh...) and  someone finally beat into her head that she
could be the most incredible governor Alaska has ever had, or ever will have, and it still wouldn't give
her  any political  leverage in the other 49 states.  That is, she  NEEDS to get down to the lower 48,
and  there just aren't  enough excuses for the governor  of AK to do  all that out-of-state travelling
without handing every future opponent a big absentee-officeholder stick to beat her with.

Watch for her to become a regular feature at far-Right-interest-group functions betweeen now and 2011,
when we'll find out if she's acquired enough in-party clout to bully her way onto the GOP ballot for '12.
(Sadly for her, her influence outside the Republican Party will still be nonexistent, so her presence on any
such ticket will once again prove a liability.)

If she does become the Republican candidate in 2012 then the future looks pretty bright for the Obama administration. Isn't it possible that she's become such an embarassment to her party that she's simply been encouraged to move out of a position in which she might be under the media spotlight?
Watch and see.....

The thing is, much as the GOP's pragmatic we'd-like-to-get-back-into-office-someday people
would like [her, Cheney, the Governor of SC, Rush Limbaugh...] to go away and never be heard
from again, those people just won't play along.

She wont win the nomination, she has her fans in the GOP but most will view her as a quitter.
Logged
"It's the game of life. Do I win or do I lose? One day they're gonna shut the game down. I gotta have as much fun and go around the board as many times as I can before it's my turn to leave."

CeeGBee

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #24 on: July 06, 2009, 03:16:56 PM »

BUT SERIOUSLY.......

She's planning to run for President in 2012 (duh...) and  someone finally beat into her head that she
could be the most incredible governor Alaska has ever had, or ever will have, and it still wouldn't give
her  any political  leverage in the other 49 states.  That is, she  NEEDS to get down to the lower 48,
and  there just aren't  enough excuses for the governor  of AK to do  all that out-of-state travelling
without handing every future opponent a big absentee-officeholder stick to beat her with.

Watch for her to become a regular feature at far-Right-interest-group functions betweeen now and 2011,
when we'll find out if she's acquired enough in-party clout to bully her way onto the GOP ballot for '12.
(Sadly for her, her influence outside the Republican Party will still be nonexistent, so her presence on any
such ticket will once again prove a liability.)

If she does become the Republican candidate in 2012 then the future looks pretty bright for the Obama administration. Isn't it possible that she's become such an embarassment to her party that she's simply been encouraged to move out of a position in which she might be under the media spotlight?
Watch and see.....

The thing is, much as the GOP's pragmatic we'd-like-to-get-back-into-office-someday people
would like [her, Cheney, the Governor of SC, Rush Limbaugh...] to go away and never be heard
from again, those people just won't play along.

She wont win the nomination, she has her fans in the GOP but most will view her as a quitter.
I agree that  there's no way for  her to accumulate  enough chips to get the top spot, but in some
ways  2012 will be  just like 2008 -  a woman on the ticket will still play to female voters who don't
get the fact that the Republicans really don't give a shit about them as a class of person.  Further,
if she  attends enough  Bible-thumping rallies,  anti-abortion protests  (with special-needs son and
daughter/unplanned-grandson  dragged shamelessly along), and gun shows,  she may accumulate
enough allies in the extremist factions of the party to win her the #2 spot.
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J_Beck

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #25 on: July 06, 2009, 05:15:22 PM »

BUT SERIOUSLY.......

She's planning to run for President in 2012 (duh...) and  someone finally beat into her head that she
could be the most incredible governor Alaska has ever had, or ever will have, and it still wouldn't give
her  any political  leverage in the other 49 states.  That is, she  NEEDS to get down to the lower 48,
and  there just aren't  enough excuses for the governor  of AK to do  all that out-of-state travelling
without handing every future opponent a big absentee-officeholder stick to beat her with.

Watch for her to become a regular feature at far-Right-interest-group functions betweeen now and 2011,
when we'll find out if she's acquired enough in-party clout to bully her way onto the GOP ballot for '12.
(Sadly for her, her influence outside the Republican Party will still be nonexistent, so her presence on any
such ticket will once again prove a liability.)

If she does become the Republican candidate in 2012 then the future looks pretty bright for the Obama administration. Isn't it possible that she's become such an embarassment to her party that she's simply been encouraged to move out of a position in which she might be under the media spotlight?
Watch and see.....

The thing is, much as the GOP's pragmatic we'd-like-to-get-back-into-office-someday people
would like [her, Cheney, the Governor of SC, Rush Limbaugh...] to go away and never be heard
from again, those people just won't play along.

She wont win the nomination, she has her fans in the GOP but most will view her as a quitter.
I agree that  there's no way for  her to accumulate  enough chips to get the top spot, but in some
ways  2012 will be  just like 2008 -  a woman on the ticket will still play to female voters who don't
get the fact that the Republicans really don't give a shit about them as a class of person.  Further,
if she  attends enough  Bible-thumping rallies,  anti-abortion protests  (with special-needs son and
daughter/unplanned-grandson  dragged shamelessly along), and gun shows,  she may accumulate
enough allies in the extremist factions of the party to win her the #2 spot.

And where is Mitt Romney now??
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Tiervexx

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2009, 08:34:56 PM »

And where is Mitt Romney now??

Honestly I think he was the most electable candidate the GOP had last election.  But all the bigots in that party won't support a Mormon so he won't make it.
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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2009, 08:49:08 PM »

Rush Limbaugh will get the number one spot.
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Tiervexx

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #28 on: July 06, 2009, 08:53:57 PM »

Rush Limbaugh will get the number one spot.

If he enters the race all democrats should donate to his primary campaign O0
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85283-071

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Re: Palin is.....
« Reply #29 on: July 06, 2009, 11:52:45 PM »

If he had a chance of securing the nomination, I'd switch my registration to republican so I could vote for him in the primaries.
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